Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbcb8…2f90 sports 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,500 (-6%) realized −$8,021 · open +$521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%100W / 135L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$566per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2,007est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$15,006
other 3% −$637
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.9% -8.8% 52% 48% -7.9%
≤30d 83 +9.8% -0.7% 48% 46% -11.3%
≤90d 235 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 41% -21.1%
all 235 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 41% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 41% -21.1%
10% -24.4% 39% -28.7%
15% -31.7% 36% -35.5%
20% -38.4% 34% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$700) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$417 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,420
Realized−$8,021
Unrealized+$521
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses100 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,007
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage90d
Avg bet$566
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 22¢ 36¢ $900 $1,420 +$521 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $507 +$472 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $356 −$202 -57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$58 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $154 +$157 +102%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $659 −$50 -8%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $356 −$350 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $813 +$963 +118%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,313 −$666 -51%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $285 +$103 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $610 +$622 +102%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $256 +$274 +107%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $477 −$204 -43%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $804 +$161 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,805 +$164 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,093 +$154 +14%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1,026 −$11 -1%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $407 +$502 +123%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $609 −$600 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1,015 +$615 +60%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $763 −$226 -30%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $561 −$550 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $665 −$650 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $467 +$425 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $305 +$308 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $122 +$199 +163%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $812 +$757 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $356 +$422 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $175 −$170 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $864 +$943 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $710 +$587 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,271 +$770 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1,861 −$1,850 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $429 −$420 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,873 −$973 -52%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $2,923 +$1,023 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $599 −$585 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $1,314 +$747 +57%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) Jun 02 $254 +$366 +144%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $2,143 +$1,475 +69%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1,004 −$985 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $1,533 −$1,205 -79%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $1,168 −$910 -78%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,489 +$3 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $65 +$107 +164%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5) May 31 $504 +$199 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 70¢ $708 4m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 30¢ $153 11m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 49¢ $508 23m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 15¢ $154 54m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 24¢ $614 57m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 73¢ $1,259 58m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 46¢ $813 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $154 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $356 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 18¢ $110 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $311 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $154 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $51 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,016 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $607 15h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 40¢ $356 20h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $1,776 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $55 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $592 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $808 20h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 45¢ $813 21h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $42 21h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 39¢ $16 22h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 37¢ $204 23h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 69¢ $807 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 59¢ $388 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,420.50 · official $2,100.74 · 666 history records