Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbcb7…6f32 crypto 681 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$533 (+0%) realized +$533 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%672W / 8L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,148per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$3,393
other 19% +$588
weather 4% +$46
sports 2% −$10
world 1% −$38
finance 1% +$7
politics 0% −$13
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 123 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 654 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 1% -9.2%
all 680 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$2,797) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×34.22 per $1 lost it wins $34.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses672 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)680 / 681
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$1,148
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5,070 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,194 +$16 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $680 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2,509 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,042 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1,397 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1,545 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2,374 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2,376 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1,437 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $270 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $2,389 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3,985 +$11 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1,070 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $950 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $853 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 08 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $1,900 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3,000 +$3 +0%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $346 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $609 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $4,842 +$58 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $4,895 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $4,846 +$54 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $4,695 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $4,755 +$45 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4,704 +$139 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,998 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $998 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $998 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $332 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $635 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $996 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $996 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $459 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $333 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 3500 history records