Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcb6…cb5c other 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$35
sports 23% −$20
economics 8% −$8
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
culture 6% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage134d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $414 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $213 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $736 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $550 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $289 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $780 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $346 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $245 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $148 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $914 −$2 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $240 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $703 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $324 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $66 4m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $67 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $67 3h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 13h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $67 16h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $67 18h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $67 19h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $67 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 29h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $67 31h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $67 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 36h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 37h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 43h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 45h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1302 history records