Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbcb6…38a9
crypto · 150 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses78 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 150
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Adolfo Vallejo 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Phoenix Mercury 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Washington Nationals 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 19? Up 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B 3DMAX 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-05-19? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta Thiago Agustin Tirante 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Miami Marlins 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-23? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 42% −$22
sports 32% −$7
other 25% −$9
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 60% -4.9%
≤30d 144 -7.1% -16.0% 54% 51% -18.5%
≤90d 144 -7.1% -16.0% 54% 51% -18.5%
all 144 -7.1% -16.0% 54% 51% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 51% -18.5%
10% -24.0% 42% -26.3%
15% -31.4% 35% -33.4%
20% -38.1% 29% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.55 · official $5.55 · 313 history records