Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbcb3…0330 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$80 (+28%) realized +$85 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$62
crypto 7% +$14
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.2% +9.7% 85% 77% +18.7%
≤30d 13 +21.2% +9.7% 85% 77% +18.7%
≤90d 13 +21.2% +9.7% 85% 77% +18.7%
all 13 +21.2% +9.7% 85% 77% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 77% +18.7%
10% -0.8% 69% +7.3%
15% -10.4% 62% -3.1%
20% -19.2% 31% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.24 · official $25.24 (match) · 25 history records