Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbcb2…aaa8 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11 (+17%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1
other 35% +$1
crypto 11% +$3
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.0% +3.2% 86% 57% +0.1%
≤30d 8 +18.5% +7.2% 88% 62% +0.3%
≤90d 8 +18.5% +7.2% 88% 62% +0.3%
all 8 +18.5% +7.2% 88% 62% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 62% +0.3%
10% -3.0% 50% -9.3%
15% -12.4% 38% -18.0%
20% -21.0% 25% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+164%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $4 +$4 +80%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $0 $0 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $6 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $5 59m
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $12 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 75¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $8 4h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 6h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 55¢ $4 11h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $10 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $5 16h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.06 · official $9.06 (match) · 76 history records