Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcb1…4e49 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$106
other 34% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-66.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -62.6% -66.1% 25% 25% -23.4%
≤30d 4 -62.6% -66.1% 25% 25% -23.4%
≤90d 4 -62.6% -66.1% 25% 25% -23.4%
all 4 -62.6% -66.1% 25% 25% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.1% 25% -23.4%
10% -69.4% 25% -30.7%
15% -72.3% 25% -37.4%
20% -75.0% 0% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$52 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 80¢ 90¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$115 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $50 54m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $303 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Co BUY 28¢ $47 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.94 · official $55.94 (match) · 10 history records