Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbcad…1d64 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+2%) realized −$9 · open +$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days+$1,075
14 days+$1,075
30 days+$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$657
sports 37% +$602
crypto 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 54% +0.4%
≤30d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 58% 52% -2.2%
≤90d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 58% 52% -2.2%
all 33 -6.5% -15.4% 58% 52% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 52% -2.2%
10% -23.5% 42% -11.6%
15% -30.9% 33% -20.1%
20% -37.6% 27% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$135 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,730
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$299
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage18d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $2,431 $2,730 +$299 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $506 +$326 +64%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $201 +$41 +20%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $40 +$13 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,898 +$160 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $506 +$306 +60%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $101 +$27 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,446 +$287 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $20 +$38 +188%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,486 +$531 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,090 +$498 +46%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $31 +$66 +214%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,073 +$169 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $422 −$418 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $292 −$290 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi Jun 04 $51 +$40 +79%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 04 $20 +$14 +67%
Harris vs. Bu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $167 +$198 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $177 −$84 -47%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $202 +$49 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,439 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 5h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 69¢ $41 9h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 66¢ $40 10h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 80¢ $53 11h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $201 13h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ $40 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,898 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $34 29h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 81¢ $128 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 BUY 62¢ $506 35h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 63¢ $101 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 64¢ $34 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1,446 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 69¢ $101 2d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $8 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 98¢ $8 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 34¢ $20 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $5 2d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Gustavo Heide 61¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 34¢ $8 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $995 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $390 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,730.21 · official $2,730.21 (match) · 70 history records