Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcac…6621 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,111 (+8%) realized +$346 · open +$1,765
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day86.1pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$20,829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$242
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$1,603
crypto 5% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.9% -13.0% 73% 27% -5.3%
≤30d 12 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 25% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 25% -10.5%
all 12 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 25% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 25% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -34.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -41.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$83 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$20,829
Realized+$346
Unrealized+$1,765
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions37
Markets (closed)12 / 49
History coverage11d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day86.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,090 $5,058 +$969 (+24%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,726 $2,880 +$1,154 (+67%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,650 $1,875 +$225 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,687 $1,685 −$2 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,451 $1,532 +$81 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,125 $1,102 −$22 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 79¢ $884 $792 −$91 (-10%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 40¢ $932 $714 −$218 (-23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $550 $525 −$25 (-5%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 18¢ $730 $525 −$205 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $430 $505 +$75 (+17%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 14¢ $596 $440 −$156 (-26%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 63¢ 64¢ $388 $393 +$5 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $350 +$100 (+40%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 74¢ $317 $328 +$11 (+4%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 88¢ $319 $321 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $270 −$30 (-10%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 52¢ $240 $260 +$20 (+8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $224 $231 +$7 (+3%)
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $180 $212 +$32 (+18%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 49¢ $189 $201 +$12 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $317 $145 −$172 (-54%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $74 $111 +$37 (+50%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+2%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 88¢ $61 $81 +$21 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $270 +$30 +11%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $456 +$16 +4%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $929 +$4 +0%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $834 −$29 -3%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $285 +$50 +18%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $839 +$101 +12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $589 +$32 +5%
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $203 +$21 +10%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $650 +$20 +3%
Will Czechia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 0m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 0m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 9m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 10m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 10m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 11m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,828.99 · official $20,829.00 (match) · 982 history records