Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BC 0xbca8…ab36 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized −$4 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day31.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-18.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-9.8%	-18.4%	67%	67%	-18.4%
≤30d	3	-9.8%	-18.4%	67%	67%	-18.4%
≤90d	3	-9.8%	-18.4%	67%	67%	-18.4%
all	3	-9.8%	-18.4%	67%	67%	-18.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover31.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.4%	67%	-18.4%
10% ← realistic here	-26.2%	67%	-26.2%
15%	-33.3%	33%	-33.3%
20%	-39.9%	0%	-39.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions17

Markets (closed)3 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day31.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 17 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli	Giorgio Tabacco	48¢	97¢	$9	$18	+$9 (+101%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage	Virtus.pro	60¢	100¢	$9	$15	+$6 (+67%)
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Carles Hernandez vs Matthieu Chambonniere	Matthieu Chambonniere	60¢	100¢	$6	$10	+$4 (+67%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner	Spirit Academy	63¢	100¢	$6	$9	+$3 (+58%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang	Zhizhen Zhang	63¢	100¢	$6	$9	+$3 (+58%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova	Karolina Pliskova	66¢	100¢	$6	$9	+$3 (+52%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas	Manoj Dhamne Manas	66¢	62¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-7%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov	Pavel Kotov	65¢	100¢	$3	$5	+$2 (+54%)
ITF Saarlouis: Johan Oscar Lien vs Calvin Mueller	Johan Oscar Lien	77¢	100¢	$3	$4	+$1 (+29%)
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini	Marcello Serafini	27¢	31¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+15%)
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv	Maccabi Tel-Aviv	65¢	64¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)
ITF Luque: Mariangel Estrella vs Sofia Meabe	Mariangel Estrella	49¢	37¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-24%)
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You	Xiaodi You	43¢	20¢	$3	$1	−$2 (-52%)
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia	Mathilde Lollia	59¢	14¢	$3	$1	−$2 (-76%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	FUT Esports	17¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	FUT Esports	40¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka	New Zealand	42¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova	Sara Bejlek	45¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner	Flame Team	76¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Bolszewo: Barbara Straszewska vs Inka Wawrzkiewicz	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+48%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
ITF Luque: Mariangel Estrella vs Sofia Meabe	BUY Mariangel Estrella	49¢	$3	2m
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv	BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv	65¢	$3	5m
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang	BUY Zhizhen Zhang	66¢	$3	41m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You	BUY Xiaodi You	43¢	$3	43m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner	BUY Spirit Academy	74¢	$3	46m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner	BUY Spirit Academy	55¢	$3	49m
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang	BUY Zhizhen Zhang	61¢	$3	49m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	17¢	$3	50m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia	BUY Mathilde Lollia	59¢	$3	52m
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli	BUY Giorgio Tabacco	60¢	$3	54m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova	BUY Karolina Pliskova	73¢	$3	1h
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli	BUY Giorgio Tabacco	63¢	$3	1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova	BUY Karolina Pliskova	60¢	$3	1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner	BUY Flame Team	76¢	$3	1h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas	BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas	62¢	$3	1h
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli	BUY Giorgio Tabacco	34¢	$3	1h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Carles Hernandez vs Matthieu Chambonniere	BUY Matthieu Chambonniere	61¢	$3	1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea	BUY Virtus.pro	68¢	$3	1h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Carles Hernandez vs Matthieu Chambonniere	BUY Matthieu Chambonniere	59¢	$3	1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea	BUY Virtus.pro	62¢	$3	1h
ITF Saarlouis: Johan Oscar Lien vs Calvin Mueller	BUY Johan Oscar Lien	77¢	$3	1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka	BUY New Zealand	42¢	$3	1h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov	BUY Pavel Kotov	65¢	$3	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY FUT Esports	40¢	$3	1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova	BUY Sara Bejlek	45¢	$3	1h
ITF Bolszewo: Barbara Straszewska vs Inka Wawrzkiewicz	BUY Barbara Straszewska	67¢	$3	1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini	BUY Marcello Serafini	27¢	$3	1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea	BUY Virtus.pro	52¢	$3	1h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas	BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas	71¢	$3	1h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere	BUY Laslo Djere	81¢	$3	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.93 · official $96.14 · 34 history records