Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbca8…c6c0 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-3%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$16
sports 24% +$7
world 6% −$102
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -27.7% -34.6% 44% 32% -14.2%
≤30d 25 -27.7% -34.6% 44% 32% -14.2%
≤90d 25 -27.7% -34.6% 44% 32% -14.2%
all 25 -27.7% -34.6% 44% 32% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 32% -14.2%
10% -40.9% 20% -22.4%
15% -46.6% 16% -29.9%
20% -51.8% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$32 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 57¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 53¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage Carstensz 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$42 -41%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$82 +80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$49 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$6 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$23 +33%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $103 +$127 +123%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $112 +$19 +17%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 56m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 72¢ $1 57m
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 58m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $1 59m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $110 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $141 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $60 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 29h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $50 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $102 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $184 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $157 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $152 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $72 2d
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY No 88¢ $20 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.57 · official $253.66 (match) · 64 history records