Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbca6…6d74 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$840 (-22%) realized −$791 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%59W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$239
14 days−$530
30 days−$903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$665
crypto 18% −$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.8% -7.9% 34% 34% -27.6%
≤30d 208 -21.9% -29.4% 28% 28% -31.7%
≤90d 208 -21.9% -29.4% 28% 28% -31.7%
all 208 -21.9% -29.4% 28% 28% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 28% -31.7%
10% -36.1% 27% -38.3%
15% -42.3% 27% -44.2%
20% -48.0% 26% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$791
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses59 / 149
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 211
History coverage24d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi Susan Bandecchi $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Doosan Bears 41¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $10 +$20 +197%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $31 −$10 -33%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Noma Noha Akugue vs Lisa Pigato Jun 23 $20 +$29 +140%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $22 −$22 -97%
ITF Zagreb: Nicolas Jadoun vs Dimitris Sakellaridis Jun 23 $11 +$37 +324%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $22 +$44 +203%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 22 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 22 $37 −$3 -7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $8 +$29 +365%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $52 −$50 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $32 +$130 +402%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $22 +$11 +48%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $36 −$36 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $22 +$15 +68%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 22 $22 +$18 +85%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 22 $14 +$25 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -95%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $114 −$113 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $63 +$112 +178%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $17 +$15 +86%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Eikeri/Gleason vs Mertens/Zhang Jun 19 $31 +$18 +58%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $11 +$20 +188%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $43 −$42 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$77 +365%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 16 $22 +$52 +238%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $24 +$24 +99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi BUY Susan Bandecchi $30 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Fiona Crawley 100¢ $30 34m
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 18¢ $39 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 11¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Angela Fita Boluda 33¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 24¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Fiona Crawley 33¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze SELL Alina Korneeva 79¢ $42 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Noma Noha Akugue vs Lisa Pigato SELL Noma Noha Akugue 100¢ $49 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina BUY Moyuka Uchijima 39¢ $30 2h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Doosan Bears 41¢ $20 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova $10 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova $2 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alina Korneeva 38¢ $20 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Noma Noha Akugue vs Lisa Pigato BUY Noma Noha Akugue 41¢ $20 3h
ITF Zagreb: Nicolas Jadoun vs Dimitris Sakellaridis SELL Dimitris Sakellaridis 100¢ $48 3h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Eero Vasa 99¢ $65 3h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 32¢ $22 4h
ITF Zagreb: Nicolas Jadoun vs Dimitris Sakellaridis BUY Dimitris Sakellaridis 23¢ $11 5h
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch BUY Dinko Dinev $10 5h
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch BUY Dinko Dinev 22¢ $22 6h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 16¢ $35 16h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) SELL Detroit Tigers 29¢ $35 16h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 30¢ $37 17h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Felipe Meligeni Alves 21¢ $52 20h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 21¢ $41 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 14¢ $10 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Matej Dodig 21¢ $8 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 38¢ $20 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 349 history records