Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbca0…9705
sports · 645 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$40,846 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40,846 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1
Realized−$40,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses363 / 687
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$8,002
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1050 / 645
Avg bet$986
Trades / day687.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1050 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122,993
7 days−$40,846
14 days−$40,846
30 days−$40,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5 Under 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 45¢ 0¢ $742 $0 −$742 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 28¢ 0¢ $1,442 $0 −$1,442 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Cavaliers 51¢ 0¢ $770 $0 −$770 (-100%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 25¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 25¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 26¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Milwaukee Brewers 77¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 78¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) San Diego Padres 21¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $1,108 $0 −$1,108 (-100%)
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 29¢ 0¢ $1,604 $0 −$1,604 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $291 $0 −$291 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants 14¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $1,442 −$1,442 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $770 −$770 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky Jun 12 $1,604 −$1,604 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5 Jun 12 $291 −$291 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $169 −$169 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $3,772 −$3,772 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 12 $2,085 −$2,085 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 12 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5) Jun 12 $2,415 −$2,415 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$78,820
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY PortlandFire 49¢ $13 5h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) BUY PortlandFire 46¢ $20 5h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY PortlandFire 48¢ $464 5h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 32¢ $5 5h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 26¢ $6 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 97¢ $280 7h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 96¢ $24 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 75¢ $15 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 22¢ $2 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 87¢ $53 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 81¢ $33 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 89¢ $23 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 70¢ $43 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $23 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $100 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $72 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $43 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 77¢ $368 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $21 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 72¢ $7 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 21¢ $5 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 96¢ $49 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 89¢ $36 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 33¢ $28 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 69¢ $139 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 85¢ $289 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 71¢ $157 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $196 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 84¢ $74 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 65¢ $64 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1050 -29.1% -35.9% 35% 30% -14.5%
≤30d 1050 -29.1% -35.9% 35% 30% -14.5%
≤90d 1050 -29.1% -35.9% 35% 30% -14.5%
all 1050 -29.1% -35.9% 35% 30% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover687.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.9% 30% -14.5%
10% -42.0% 23% -22.7%
15% ← realistic here -47.6% 18% -30.2%
20% -52.8% 14% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records