Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BC 0xbc9e…251f weather 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82 (+19%) realized +$88 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +42.7% +29.1% 40% 33% +7.0%
≤30d 15 +42.7% +29.1% 40% 33% +7.0%
≤90d 15 +42.7% +29.1% 40% 33% +7.0%
all 15 +42.7% +29.1% 40% 33% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.1% 33% +7.0%
10% ← realistic here +16.7% 33% -3.3%
15% +5.4% 20% -12.6%
20% -4.9% 13% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×8.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.59 per $1 lost it wins $5.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? No 60¢ 8¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 28? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 +$11 +732%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 −$4 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $151 +$44 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $118 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Jun 28 $25 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 57¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 60¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 70¢ $17 58m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 81¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? SELL No 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 29¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 83¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 38¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? SELL No 22¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 78¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 85¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 50¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 48¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.38 · official $12.04 (match) · 62 history records