Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc9d…dc1d world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$3
other 18% −$6
finance 5% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% −$4
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% +$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 21 -3.8% -12.9% 19% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 21 -3.8% -12.9% 19% 0% -9.8%
all 41 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 2% -11.0%
10% -23.5% 2% -19.5%
15% -30.9% 2% -27.3%
20% -37.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage488d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $43 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 −$1 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $23 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $6 −$1 -17%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25? Mar 04 $5 +$3 +49%
UNC Wilmington vs. William & Mary Feb 25 $10 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $44 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records