Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

BC 0xbc93…7b87 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$69 (-6%) realized −$40 · open −$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +367% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +323% what you keep after slip

Net edge+323%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$214per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$671now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+322.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-43.0%	-48.4%	0%	0%	-48.4%
≤30d	4	+367.3%	+322.8%	25%	25%	-41.7%
≤90d	4	+367.3%	+322.8%	25%	25%	-41.7%
all	4	+367.3%	+322.8%	25%	25%	-41.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+322.8%	25%	-41.7%
10%	+282.4%	25%	-47.3%
15%	+245.4%	25%	-52.4%
20%	+211.6%	25%	-57.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +367% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$53 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$671

Realized−$40

Unrealized−$29

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage27d

Avg bet$214

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$700	$671	−$29 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$285	−$122	-43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$28	−$27	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$36	−$9	-24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$34	+1636%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$163	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$28	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	52¢	$28	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$36	13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$285	26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$721	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.83 · official $670.83 (match) · 34 history records