Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc8f…470a other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$2
other 28% −$7
politics 28% −$3
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -10.5%
all 60 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.4%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage303d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 02 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $8 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Jan 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $8 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $1 $0 +21%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $23 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 27 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 27? Aug 27 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $16 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $12 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $15 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $11 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $23 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $19 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.14 · official $31.14 (match) · 295 history records