Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc8e…4577 world 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$22
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$20
other 21% +$1
politics 15% +$1
sports 14% −$8
finance 3% +$2
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 37 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 59 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 3% -9.9%
all 109 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 75
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage310d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $234 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $86 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $37 +$3 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $82 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $95 −$19 -20%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -21%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $95 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $322 −$6 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $211 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $283 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $92 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $196 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $250 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $3 +$1 +50%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 −$1 -59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $96 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $22 $0 +2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $285 +$8 +3%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $178 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $172 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $77 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $6 8h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $4 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $2 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $85 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $85 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $77 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $14 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $9 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $4 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $51 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $49 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $86 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $86 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.15 · official $76.12 (match) · 492 history records