Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc8c…273f crypto 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,196 (+4%) realized +$9,083 · open +$113
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%243W / 336L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1,179est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$8,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,929
7 days+$8,096
14 days+$7,889
30 days+$14,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$17,121
crypto 16% −$3,858
other 6% −$2,156
world 2% −$2,663
economics 0% −$414
culture 0% −$286
politics 0% −$99
finance 0% +$8
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 64% +8.9%
≤30d 86 -16.0% -24.0% 56% 47% -1.3%
≤90d 134 -23.0% -30.3% 51% 43% -2.9%
all 579 -24.1% -31.3% 42% 37% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 37% -5.9%
10% -37.9% 29% -14.9%
15% -43.9% 23% -23.2%
20% -49.4% 19% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$111 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$8,427
Realized+$9,083
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses243 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,179
Open positions6
Markets (closed)579 / 585
History coverage212d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 280 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $6,047 +$2,061 +34%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $5,034 +$1,459 +29%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $1,329 +$937 +70%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $3,716 +$939 +25%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3,333 +$468 +14%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3,009 +$324 +11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2,461 +$635 +26%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,900 +$582 +31%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $1,249 +$651 +52%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $947 −$85 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,221 −$833 -68%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1,801 +$368 +20%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $280 +$1,540 +549%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2,272 −$1,990 -88%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $1,492 +$777 +52%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,066 +$428 +40%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $899 +$168 +19%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $516 +$425 +82%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $359 +$157 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $773 −$773 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 06 $22 −$21 -96%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $478 −$67 -14%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $477 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $1,955 −$1,952 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $395 −$385 -97%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $479 −$466 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1,543 −$1,170 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $1,395 +$154 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $840 +$553 +66%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $729 +$114 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $225 +$170 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $206 +$133 +65%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $1,643 −$1,466 -89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $479 −$479 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $410 −$400 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $2,011 −$2,000 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $2,594 +$1,973 +76%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 30 $2,811 +$413 +15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $655 −$641 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 61¢ $3,035 46m
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 59¢ $5,061 47m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $52 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $52 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $52 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 74¢ $6,047 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 77¢ $5,034 4h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 58¢ $1,329 6h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 79¢ $3,716 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $83 8h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Raphael Perot 87¢ $3,333 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $1 19h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $88 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 90¢ $3,009 19h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 79¢ $2,461 20h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire $10 20h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire $10 20h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 76¢ $1,900 23h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Eduardo Ribeiro 100¢ $1,900 23h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 65¢ $1,249 24h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 67¢ $862 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $387 26h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 73¢ $947 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,221 26h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 83¢ $1,801 28h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic $1 29h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic $1 29h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic $1 29h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic $1 29h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,426.98 · official $8,426.98 (match) · 1259 history records