Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc85…3e51 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%126W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$4
other 26% +$2
tech 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 127 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 127 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 127 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses126 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage20d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $134-$136 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) BUY Senegal 100¢ $50 32m
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $134-$136 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $20 2h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $25 2h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 100¢ $50 9h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 17h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 40h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? SELL No 100¢ $50 43h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $50 43h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $50 45h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 45h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 100¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $50 2d
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria BUY Namibia 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $50 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 4d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 270 history records