Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc84…a0d2 weather 862 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9,652 (+25%) realized +$9,633 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate79%726W / 188L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day135.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$648
7 days+$4,731
14 days+$4,891
30 days+$4,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -15.9% -23.9% 64% 3% -10.7%
≤30d 914 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 914 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 5% -9.2%
all 914 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 5% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -28.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2,043
Realized+$9,633
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses726 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)914 / 862
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day135.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 914 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $573 $579 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $438 $438 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $238 $239 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? No 96¢ 98¢ $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $43 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 92¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on May 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on April 12? Jun 17 $0 −$14 -110194%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or below on May 19? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 3? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 5? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 7? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 13 Jun 17 $0 −$15 -70154%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on May 19? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on May 20? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 7? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on April 12? Jun 17 $0 −$18 -22939%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 20? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 5? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on May 2 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 10? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 13? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C or below on May 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 20? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $19 9m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $19 9m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $14 10m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $19 10m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $19 10m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $90 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $165 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $149 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $17 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $81 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 62¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 66¢ $19 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,043.21 · official $2,027.72 (match) · 3500 history records