Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc84…2e70 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$12 (+24%) realized +$5 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.9% +22.1% 100% 100% +28.7%
≤30d 2 +34.9% +22.1% 100% 100% +28.7%
≤90d 2 +34.9% +22.1% 100% 100% +28.7%
all 2 +34.9% +22.1% 100% 100% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 100% +28.7%
10% +10.4% 50% +16.4%
15% -0.3% 50% +5.2%
20% -10.0% 50% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.83 · official $26.83 (match) · 5 history records