Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbc83…21af sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$2
sports 36% −$24
crypto 1% +$7
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 2 -49.5% -54.3% 50% 0% -12.7%
all 27 -16.2% -24.2% 52% 48% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 48% -16.1%
10% -31.4% 48% -24.1%
15% -38.1% 48% -31.4%
20% -44.1% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage705d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? No 98¢ 98¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $127 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Mar 30 $6 −$6 -99%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 23 $10 +$4 +45%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 13 $8 +$5 +64%
Kraken vs. Stars Mar 04 $8 +$4 +51%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Feb 11 $6 +$3 +49%
Red Wings vs. Avalanche Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Sharks vs. Red Wings Jan 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Jazz Jan 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Lightning vs. Sharks Jan 10 $10 +$6 +56%
Celtics vs. Jazz Jan 03 $8 +$3 +37%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $5 +$3 +52%
Blues vs. Lightning Dec 27 $4 +$2 +47%
Canucks vs. Islanders Dec 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 08 $8 +$5 +64%
Hornets vs. Nets Dec 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Knicks Dec 01 $7 +$2 +37%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 27 $2 +$1 +56%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Nov 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana flips ETH in daily fees in July? Nov 12 $3 +$7 +245%
Ryan Garcia comes out of retirement before August? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Fact Check: Was Trump wearing a bulletproof vest? Jul 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lega receive more than 9% of votes? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $128 1h
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $127 21h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 76d
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Chris Duncan 64¢ $6 83d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 36¢ $4 90d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors BUY Timberwolves 69¢ $10 100d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 61¢ $8 109d
Kraken vs. Stars BUY Stars 66¢ $8 130d
Hurricanes vs. Rangers BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $6 136d
Red Wings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 67¢ $4 140d
Warriors vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 67¢ $13 149d
Sharks vs. Red Wings BUY Sharks 36¢ $6 156d
Hornets vs. Jazz BUY Hornets 63¢ $10 163d
Lightning vs. Sharks BUY Lightning 64¢ $10 170d
Celtics vs. Jazz BUY Celtics 73¢ $8 173d
Suns vs. Pelicans BUY Suns 66¢ $5 176d
Blues vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 68¢ $4 182d
Canucks vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 58¢ $7 184d
Panthers vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 58¢ $10 188d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 41¢ $5 195d
Pelicans vs. Nets BUY Nets 61¢ $8 197d
Hornets vs. Nets BUY Hornets 63¢ $7 203d
Bucks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 73¢ $7 206d
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 211d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 41¢ $5 221d
Ryan Garcia comes out of retirement before August? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 705d
Solana flips ETH in daily fees in July? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 705d
Fact Check: Was Trump wearing a bulletproof vest? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 705d
Will Lega receive more than 9% of votes? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 705d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.81 · official $129.81 (match) · 43 history records