Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbc82…5af0 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,110 (+39%) realized +$2,157 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$887
7 days+$2,420
14 days+$2,420
30 days+$2,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1,158
crypto 29% +$115
sports 25% +$1,177
world 2% −$105
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +34.7% +21.8% 54% 49% +48.6%
≤30d 39 +34.7% +21.8% 54% 49% +48.6%
≤90d 39 +34.7% +21.8% 54% 49% +48.6%
all 45 +16.7% +5.6% 47% 42% +47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 42% +47.3%
10% -4.5% 38% +33.2%
15% -13.7% 38% +20.4%
20% -22.2% 31% +8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$42 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,001
Realized+$2,157
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)45 / 54
History coverage99d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 62¢ $250 $394 +$144 (+58%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $250 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $198 $179 −$19 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 28¢ 8¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 39¢ 6¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$328 +214%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$363 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$106 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $355 +$311 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$90 -83%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$226 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$418 +272%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $21 −$16 -78%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$34 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$10 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$305 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$162 +53%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $153 +$382 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$11 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $259 −$59 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $222 +$367 +165%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $255 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $481 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $102 2h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $153 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $768 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $113 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $310 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $406 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $666 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $355 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $19 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.92 · official $1,000.99 (match) · 116 history records