Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BC 0xbc80…41fe other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$21 (+29%) realized +$21 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)+12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+24.5%	+12.6%	20%	20%	-21.2%
≤30d	5	+24.5%	+12.6%	20%	20%	-21.2%
≤90d	5	+24.5%	+12.6%	20%	20%	-21.2%
all	5	+24.5%	+12.6%	20%	20%	-21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.6%	20%	-21.2%
10%	+1.8%	20%	-28.8%
15%	-8.0%	20%	-35.6%
20%	-17.0%	20%	-41.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$8 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$21

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$27	−$26	-96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$11	−$5	-43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$9	+$25	+292%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$11	−$2	-18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$12	−$1	-12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$1	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	4¢	$27	1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	2¢	$6	3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	24¢	$9	22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	43¢	$9	22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	47¢	$11	22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	22¢	$10	22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	22¢	$12	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 12 history records