Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc7f…f922
crypto · 924 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$665 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$817 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$133
Realized−$817
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses452 / 460
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)912 / 924
History coverage114d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 12 History 912 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 38¢ 38¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 13¢ 12¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Vitality 47¢ 48¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 27¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage The Huns Esports 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MIBR 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BetBoom Team 31¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A FUT Esports 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Team Falcons 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs G2 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs MOUZ 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Team Falcons 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs GamerLegion 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Team Falcons 49¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $11 +$8 +74%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 23 $2 −$1 -51%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $5 −$2 -30%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 22 $3 +$3 +97%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Q May 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) May 22 $5 +$8 +165%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $4 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $7 +$8 +115%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $6 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $29 +$37 +125%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $18 −$11 -61%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $22 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $14 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) May 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 14 $3 +$5 +158%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $14 +$7 +50%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 13 $10 +$13 +125%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $2 +$7 +325%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $5 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $3 +$5 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $9 +$5 +51%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 04 $5 +$11 +216%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% +$110
crypto 34% −$387
world 8% −$412
other 6% −$64
politics 4% +$7
economics 2% −$14
tech 1% −$45
finance 1% −$20
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $4 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 47¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $3 16h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL Vitality 69¢ $4 16h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $10 40h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 40h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 5d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 49¢ $7 5d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 47¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof SELL Alliance 33¢ $3 16d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof BUY Alliance 24¢ $2 16d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 20d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY MIBR 35¢ $3 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $14 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $6 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla SELL MOUZ 55¢ $6 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $1 21d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.8% -70.8% 0% 0% -79.3%
≤30d 28 -32.5% -38.9% 25% 25% -30.8%
≤90d 567 -39.4% -45.2% 29% 25% -27.4%
all 912 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 46% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 46% -14.7%
10% -26.4% 40% -22.9%
15% -33.5% 31% -30.3%
20% -40.0% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.43 · official $133.43 (match) · 2747 history records