Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc7c…d068 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+8%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$16
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 40% +4.2%
≤30d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 40% +4.2%
≤90d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 40% +4.2%
all 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 40% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 40% +4.2%
10% -14.5% 40% -5.7%
15% -22.8% 40% -14.8%
20% -30.4% 20% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.44 per $1 lost it wins $17.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$3 +4%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 8m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $70 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $68 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $66 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 23h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.25 · official $69.25 (match) · 14 history records