Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc77…3dee other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$42 (+71%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +138% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +115% what you keep after slip
Net edge+115%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$11
world 35% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+115.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +137.9% +115.2% 100% 100% +116.4%
≤30d 2 +137.9% +115.2% 100% 100% +116.4%
≤90d 2 +137.9% +115.2% 100% 100% +116.4%
all 2 +137.9% +115.2% 100% 100% +116.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +115.2% 100% +116.4%
10% +94.6% 100% +95.7%
15% +75.8% 100% +76.8%
20% +58.6% 100% +59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +139% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +138% · $-wt +139% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage5d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$29 +141%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$11 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $49 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $19 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.78 · official $29.78 (match) · 6 history records