Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc77…66ff sports 696 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$62 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%254W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$23
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$26
world 11% +$25
other 10% −$14
politics 6% −$25
finance 1% −$10
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +28.1% +15.9% 52% 46% -7.7%
≤30d 575 +2.6% -7.1% 42% 37% -8.5%
≤90d 640 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 34% -9.9%
all 640 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 34% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 34% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 28% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 23% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses254 / 386
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions54
Markets (closed)640 / 696
History coverage58d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 31¢ 64¢ $4 $9 +$4 (+110%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 25¢ 28¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 23¢ 55¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+142%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 64¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? No 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 78¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? No 55¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? No 66¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -13%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +126%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +124%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +150%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$9 +874%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -10%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $9 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included Jun 10 $3 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $3 46m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 31¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 45¢ $2 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 40¢ $2 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 21¢ $2 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $3 8h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $1 9h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.47 · official $165.68 (match) · 2401 history records