Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbc76…3af1 sports 69 markets active 6d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$402
14 days−$380
30 days−$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.8% -45.5% 31% 31% -39.6%
≤30d 28 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 29% -49.2%
≤90d 28 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 29% -49.2%
all 69 +12.1% +1.4% 43% 43% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 43% -9.5%
10% -8.3% 42% -18.2%
15% -17.1% 36% -26.1%
20% -25.3% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +71% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$175 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage104d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $246 −$243 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $39 +$25 +63%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $18 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $253 +$185 +73%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $109 −$106 -98%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $174 −$171 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $57 +$128 +226%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 09 $30 +$27 +87%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $47 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $35 +$12 +34%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $99 −$97 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $58 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 3 Winner May 29 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 2 Winner May 29 $15 +$18 +118%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro May 28 $15 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 28 $27 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 20 $29 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $13 +$16 +123%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 06 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $114 +$30 +26%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $713 −$713 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $271 +$442 +163%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Mar 04 $905 −$905 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 03 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $375 −$375 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $504 −$504 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Mar 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Mar 03 $95 +$959 +1010%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 03 $1,200 +$499 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Mar 03 $666 +$534 +80%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $527 −$527 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Mar 02 $23 +$205 +890%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $150 +$149 +99%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage Mar 02 $394 +$616 +156%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $420 −$420 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $332 +$88 +26%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $213 +$119 +56%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Mar 02 $105 +$109 +104%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs 9z - Map 3 Winner Mar 02 $259 +$234 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 67¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 58¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 57¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 60¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 46¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY Atreides 19¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 99¢ $64 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro BUY HEROIC Academy 60¢ $142 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 47¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 67¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 60¢ $39 6d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL Yangon Galacticos 99¢ $121 6d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Masked Regime 10¢ $18 6d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 82¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $438 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $253 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 23¢ $109 6d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY B8 30¢ $174 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 5¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 2¢ $5 6d
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) SELL Monte 100¢ $185 6d
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) BUY Monte 30¢ $57 7d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 38¢ $5 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $45 14d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 65¢ $47 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 100¢ $47 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 74¢ $35 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 26¢ $99 18d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 79¢ $58 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records