trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 49¢ | 50¢ | $335,802 | $339,085 | +$3,283 (+1%) |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $161,700 | $164,895 | +$3,195 (+2%) |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | Yes | 21¢ | 24¢ | $657 | $752 | +$95 (+14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 23 | $86,702 | +$9,463 | +11% |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 25 | $22,822 | +$492 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 18 | $1,806 | −$24 | -1% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Feb 19 | $967 | +$6 | +1% |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Feb 05 | $108,232 | +$13,114 | +12% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | Feb 04 | $6,447 | +$201 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +10.9% | +0.4% | 100% | 100% | +0.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 67% | 33% | -1.5% |
| all | 6 | +4.6% | -5.4% | 83% | 33% | -0.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -5.4% | 33% | -0.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -14.4% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 15% | -22.7% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 20% | -30.3% | 0% | -26.5% |