trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 75% | 75% | +16.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 75% | 75% | +16.2% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -18.3% | -26.0% | 60% | 60% | +12.2% |
| all | 13 | -22.6% | -30.0% | 38% | 38% | +1.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.0% | 38% | +1.5% |
| 10% | -36.7% | 23% | -8.2% |
| 15% | -42.8% | 23% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -48.4% | 15% | -25.2% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $3,901 | +$1,955 | +50% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $3,327 | +$574 | +17% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $2,000 | +$827 | +41% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $569 | −$567 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 29 | $349 | −$349 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $349 | +$1,105 | +317% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 10 | $317 | −$317 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | Feb 10 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Nov 05 | $50 | −$49 | -98% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $250 | −$186 | -74% |
| Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | Jul 19 | $925 | −$462 | -50% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | Jul 17 | $1,300 | −$837 | -64% |