Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc74…f984
world · 78 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$154
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage467d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 2 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$15
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $157 $154 −$4 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$7 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $2,104 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $139 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $436 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $327 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $309 +$5 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $124 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $136 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $133 +$3 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $134 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $107 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $291 −$23 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2,825 +$5 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 17 $12 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 86% −$8
other 8% −$5
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$7
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $157 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $31 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $137 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $137 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $66 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $71 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $137 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $72 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $121 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $150 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $151 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $136 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $133 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $134 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.5% -5.5% 33% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 5% -9.6%
all 76 +1.2% -8.5% 49% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.12 · official $153.75 (match) · 298 history records