Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc73…1394 other 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 23% −$19
culture 8% −$9
politics 8% −$6
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 5% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage128d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $841 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $366 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $414 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $133 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $624 −$3 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $345 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 12m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 12h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 13h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 20h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 22h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 26h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $51 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $51 31h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 32h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 39h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 40h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 43h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.36 · official $50.36 (match) · 1326 history records