Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc71…5919 crypto 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$291 (-3%) realized −$299 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%121W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$649
14 days−$848
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$242
other 26% +$237
sports 25% −$120
world 4% −$280
tech 1% +$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +9.3% -1.1% 43% 40% -18.9%
≤30d 219 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 46% -14.5%
≤90d 233 +4.6% -5.3% 52% 47% -13.2%
all 233 +4.6% -5.3% 52% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 47% -13.2%
10% -14.4% 43% -21.5%
15% -22.7% 37% -29.1%
20% -30.2% 30% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses121 / 112
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)233 / 253
History coverage47d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$37 +365%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$126 +42%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 +$82 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $203 −$203 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 +$78 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$26 +510%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$10 +122%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $367 +$228 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$45 +89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +89%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$103 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$17 -16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $403 +$110 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $223 −$71 -32%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$47 +9%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 22m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 30m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 1h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $61 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $20 12h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $302 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will IR Ir BUY 2¢ $10 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 15h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $61 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $6 33h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 35h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 35h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $51 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 36h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $10 38h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $90 2d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $89 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $278 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.89 · official $197.89 (match) · 1073 history records