Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc70…574c other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$681 (-6%) realized −$689 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%38W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$388
14 days−$388
30 days−$648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,209
politics 39% +$928
tech 2% −$258
crypto 2% −$108
world 0% +$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.5% -25.3% 50% 50% -34.6%
≤30d 10 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 50% -42.0%
≤90d 10 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 50% -42.0%
all 58 -10.3% -18.9% 66% 34% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 34% -15.4%
10% -26.6% 22% -23.5%
15% -33.7% 21% -30.9%
20% -40.2% 14% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$187 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$689
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses38 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)58 / 65
History coverage199d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 +$70 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $368 −$368 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$70 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $262 +$90 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$94 +90%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $190 −$139 -73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? May 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $200 −$136 -68%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 14 $210 −$125 -60%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Mar 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 11 $300 +$45 +15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $200 +$112 +56%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 21 $519 +$872 +168%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 11 $505 −$346 -69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $34 +$17 +49%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 02 $52 −$29 -56%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $165 +$35 +21%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $495 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 24 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 24 $570 +$118 +21%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $144 +$150 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $1,000 −$881 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Dec 12 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $158 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $158 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $158 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $263 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $263 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $105 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $105 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $106 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $262 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 4d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 96d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $64 96d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 96d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 96d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $85 96d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 17¢ $85 96d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 96d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 103d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 87¢ $200 103d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 126d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 138d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.18 · official $993.18 (match) · 174 history records