Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc6d…d117 crypto 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-5%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%145W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -14.5% -22.6% 62% 7% -16.2%
≤30d 277 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 27% -17.3%
≤90d 309 -13.6% -21.9% 47% 26% -17.1%
all 309 -13.6% -21.9% 47% 26% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 26% -17.1%
10% -29.3% 18% -25.0%
15% -36.2% 13% -32.2%
20% -42.4% 7% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses145 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)309 / 309
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 309 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 673 history records