Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbc67…9627 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$304 (+33%) realized +$304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$254
sports 22% +$49
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +29.1% +16.8% 47% 47% +20.1%
≤30d 17 +29.1% +16.8% 47% 47% +20.1%
≤90d 17 +29.1% +16.8% 47% 47% +20.1%
all 17 +29.1% +16.8% 47% 47% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 47% +20.1%
10% +5.6% 47% +8.6%
15% -4.6% 47% -1.9%
20% -14.0% 29% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +101% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$37 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$23 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$122 +249%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 +$153 +596%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$2 -5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$157 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $140 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $74 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $48 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records