Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc66…eb09 other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%16W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$49
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$51
other 27% −$26
sports 17% −$11
crypto 6% −$12
economics 5% −$4
world 5% −$5
culture 4% −$5
tech 2% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 78 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 162 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 174 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses16 / 158
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage100d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $28 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 $0 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $294 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $48 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $62 −$24 -39%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $76 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $138 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $169 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $173 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $59 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $372 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $34 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $31 16h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $34 16h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $34 22h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 91¢ $27 22h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $28 26h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 27h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 38h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $34 39h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $35 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $32 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $37 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $37 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $7 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.09 · official $37.10 (match) · 706 history records