Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc5b…2ebd crypto 730 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$736 (+6%) realized +$732 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%393W / 336L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$167
14 days+$92
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -6.2% -15.2% 61% 60% -5.4%
≤30d 453 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 59% -5.7%
≤90d 729 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 53% -5.5%
all 729 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 53% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 53% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 43% -14.5%
15% -28.0% 33% -22.8%
20% -35.0% 26% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$732
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses393 / 336
Open positions1
Markets (closed)729 / 730
History coverage42d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 729 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 37¢ 58¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 318 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$13 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$13 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$7 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$30 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$17 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.66 · official $9.90 · 1636 history records