Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

BC 0xbc58…1e76 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$20 (+15%) realized +$9 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+25.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+38.7%	+25.5%	67%	67%	+13.7%
≤30d	6	+38.7%	+25.5%	67%	67%	+13.7%
≤90d	6	+38.7%	+25.5%	67%	67%	+13.7%
all	6	+38.7%	+25.5%	67%	67%	+13.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.5%	67%	+13.7%
10%	+13.5%	67%	+2.8%
15%	+2.5%	67%	-7.1%
20%	-7.5%	67%	-16.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized+$9

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	51¢	50¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5	Over	46¢	100¢	$10	$22	+$12 (+117%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$20	−$18	-86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5	Jun 28	$10	+$7	+70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$20	+$37	+180%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$10	+$7	+67%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-99%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 27	$10	+$10	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	51¢	$30	1h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$10	2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5	SELL Over	7¢	$3	3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$20	7h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	58¢	$10	7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	35¢	$20	21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	24h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers	BUY Milwaukee Brewers	60¢	$10	24h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers	BUY Milwaukee Brewers	59¢	$10	24h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	SELL Boston Red Sox	100¢	$20	27h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	49¢	$10	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.43 · official $50.85 (match) · 15 history records