Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc57…ce1e other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%26W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$57
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$341
sports 31% −$490
other 27% +$156
crypto 0% −$31
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -43.2% -48.6% 17% 17% -12.1%
≤30d 26 -28.3% -35.2% 23% 23% +27.7%
≤90d 29 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -9.1%
all 95 -20.9% -28.4% 27% 26% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 26% -10.2%
10% -35.2% 25% -18.8%
15% -41.5% 23% -26.7%
20% -47.2% 21% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$47 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 69
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)95 / 106
History coverage366d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $60 $81 +$21 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$35 +344%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$70 +137%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $39 +$69 +179%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$22 +110%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $148 +$320 +216%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $25 +$84 +334%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $100 +$133 +133%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $100 +$271 +271%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 11 $10 +$133 +1329%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 10 $200 +$139 +70%
Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Mar 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 3d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 2¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.61 · official $434.24 (match) · 196 history records