Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

BC 0xbc57…41a6 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,310 (-27%) realized −$1,331 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$299per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit6%portable

Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-23.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-15.5%	-23.6%	58%	58%	-36.6%
≤30d	12	-15.5%	-23.6%	58%	58%	-36.6%
≤90d	12	-15.5%	-23.6%	58%	58%	-36.6%
all	12	-15.5%	-23.6%	58%	58%	-36.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.6%	58%	-36.6%
10%	-30.9%	42%	-42.7%
15%	-37.6%	25%	-48.2%
20%	-43.7%	0%	-53.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$127 vs −$452 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$211

Realized−$1,331

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage6d

Avg bet$299

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$74	$74	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	81¢	$55	$67	+$12 (+22%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	2¢	$0	$10	+$10 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$61	−$61	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$71	−$71	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$151	+$17	+11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$63	+$22	+35%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$62	−$6	-10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$69	+$34	+49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$71	+$17	+24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$262	+$30	+11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$212	−$212	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,908	−$1,908	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$507	+$228	+45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,142	+$538	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$61	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$56	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$75	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$71	35h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$56	35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$61	35h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$62	35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	65¢	$35	46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$69	46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$71	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$151	2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	73¢	$63	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$194	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$67	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	78¢	$212	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,139	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$769	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$507	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,142	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.52 · official $209.75 (match) · 31 history records