Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbc56…cbe8 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,009 (+20%) realized +$5,882 · open +$127
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%58W / 49L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$5,064
14 days+$4,913
30 days+$5,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$6,273
economics 7% −$74
other 4% −$10
crypto 1% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 42% +63.4%
≤30d 25 +5.4% -4.6% 48% 44% +58.1%
≤90d 71 +1.4% -8.3% 51% 49% +11.9%
all 107 +12.8% +2.0% 54% 52% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 52% +8.2%
10% -7.7% 50% -2.2%
15% -16.7% 41% -11.6%
20% -24.8% 36% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$161 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$5,882
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses58 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions6
Markets (closed)107 / 113
History coverage109d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 100¢ $103 $210 +$107 (+104%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $52 $63 +$11 (+21%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 40¢ $15 $42 +$26 (+170%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Yes 13¢ $29 $13 −$15 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $96 +$114 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 +$125 +116%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $90 +$162 +180%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 +$184 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4,918 +$4,846 +98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $164 +$53 +32%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $42 +$73 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $153 −$151 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $98 −$96 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $101 −$6 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $125 +$77 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $103 +$117 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $103 +$204 +197%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $201 +$58 +29%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $102 +$104 +102%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 07 $179 −$176 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $6 +$4 +76%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $511 −$511 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $397 +$109 +27%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $150 +$258 +172%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $594 −$594 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $300 −$63 -21%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 18 $115 −$87 -75%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 11 $270 −$270 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $190 +$79 +42%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $130 +$59 +46%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $100 +$29 +29%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $95 −$95 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 06 $160 +$36 +23%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $70 +$86 +124%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $45 +$28 +62%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $31 +$15 +50%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 11.5 Apr 01 $18 +$13 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $66 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $43 1h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $28 1h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $16 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $104 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 69¢ $203 1h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $0 9h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $16 10h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $9 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $30 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $107 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $96 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $98 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $90 22h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 45¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.93 · official $451.13 · 388 history records