Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbc56…8f28 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized +$253 · open −$329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%58W / 26L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,091
7 days−$1,091
14 days−$1,091
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,304
other 35% +$1,159
politics 0% +$34
world 0% +$50
crypto 0% +$17
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -6.9% -15.7% 62% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 84 +6.2% -4.0% 69% 52% -8.9%
≤90d 84 +6.2% -4.0% 69% 52% -8.9%
all 84 +6.2% -4.0% 69% 52% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 52% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 32% -17.7%
15% -21.5% 24% -25.6%
20% -29.2% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$270 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,554
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$329
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses58 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage20d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 57¢ 56¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Harmony Tan 43¢ 100¢ $300 $697 +$397 (+132%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Caty McNally 79¢ 90¢ $600 $683 +$83 (+14%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 44¢ 56¢ $354 $454 +$100 (+28%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Alina Korneeva 64¢ 100¢ $241 $379 +$137 (+57%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Luisina Giovannini 37¢ 44¢ $300 $350 +$50 (+17%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Yulia Starodubtseva 55¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Alexandra Shubladze 64¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $737 +$167 +23%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $254 +$278 +109%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $237 +$78 +33%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,202 +$143 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $500 +$62 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 23 $226 +$31 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$52 +13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,200 +$55 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $2,300 +$249 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $802 +$151 +19%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $503 +$107 +21%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 +$19 +18%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $999 +$31 +3%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $502 +$93 +19%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $302 −$302 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $601 −$601 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,500 +$119 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,501 +$141 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $500 +$31 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,100 +$75 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 +$150 +75%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $240 +$22 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,002 +$61 +6%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $200 +$14 +7%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2,002 +$79 +4%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $501 +$50 +10%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $503 +$114 +23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $304 −$155 -51%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $50 +$450 +900%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $501 +$31 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,731 +$45 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $416 +$95 +23%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,000 +$130 +13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $267 −$267 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $1,000 +$205 +20%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $500 +$269 +54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $508 +$492 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 22 $257 −$111 -43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 22 $402 −$402 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 44¢ $2 1m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 44¢ $352 1m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 38¢ $0 24m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 38¢ $15 24m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 38¢ $78 24m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 38¢ $6 24m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 37¢ $200 25m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 65¢ $101 33m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 55¢ $253 40m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 56¢ $253 47m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova BUY Harmony Tan 43¢ $79 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova BUY Harmony Tan 43¢ $219 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova BUY Harmony Tan 43¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alina Korneeva 62¢ $22 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alina Korneeva 62¢ $78 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alina Korneeva 65¢ $143 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 91¢ $22 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 91¢ $112 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 91¢ $112 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 91¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 83¢ $251 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 81¢ $251 1h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Fabian Marozsan 75¢ $199 1h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Fabian Marozsan 73¢ $38 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 79¢ $234 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 64¢ $354 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 75¢ $252 2h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 47¢ $254 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $1,013 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $422 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,553.92 · official $3,523.66 (match) · 341 history records