Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BC 0xbc55…4b78 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1
other 32% −$8
world 12% +$2
crypto 10% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 17% -13.9%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 85% 15% -12.5%
≤90d 14 +7.6% -2.7% 86% 21% -11.9%
all 15 +7.1% -3.1% 87% 20% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 20% -11.8%
10% -12.4% 7% -20.3%
15% -20.9% 7% -28.0%
20% -28.6% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage141d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $66 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $62 −$11 -18%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 24 $1 $0 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? May 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? Feb 28 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $66 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $29 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 84¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 13d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 13d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $1 13d
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 13d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $9 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 27d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $9 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $1 39d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 39d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.08 · official $156.08 (match) · 69 history records