Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc54…680f
politics · 64 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$8,096 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,719 · open −$302
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$12,286
Realized+$5,719
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions63
Markets (closed)35 / 64
Avg bet$428
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 63 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,865
7 days+$3,892
14 days+$3,860
30 days+$4,953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,269 $2,332 +$63 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,402 $1,408 +$6 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $1,269 $1,284 +$15 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,081 $1,105 +$25 (+2%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $684 $731 +$47 (+7%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $616 $627 +$11 (+2%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $496 $508 +$12 (+2%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $477 $474 −$3 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 66¢ $380 $393 +$13 (+3%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 67¢ 58¢ $395 $346 −$49 (-12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 86¢ 84¢ $284 $279 −$4 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 61¢ 78¢ $214 $271 +$58 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 82¢ $213 $257 +$44 (+21%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $234 $237 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump resign before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $157 $162 +$5 (+3%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 90¢ 96¢ $131 $140 +$9 (+7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $110 $136 +$26 (+24%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $121 $116 −$5 (-4%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $90 $105 +$15 (+17%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $106 $102 −$4 (-3%)
US defaults on debt by 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $93 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 100¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $99 $79 −$20 (-20%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $90 $73 −$17 (-19%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $87 $60 −$27 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$99 -403%
Will MrBeast's TeamWater livestream last between 36 and 48 hours? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Jun 12 $1,199 +$3,771 +315%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 11 $192 +$31 +16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $1,038 +$165 +16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 09 $45 +$8 +17%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 05 $1,280 +$19 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $70 −$34 -48%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $961 +$982 +102%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 23 $3,069 +$100 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 May 20 $5 $0 +8%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 20 $163 −$31 -19%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $123 −$52 -42%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 20 $22 +$2 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 May 20 $68 −$14 -21%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 20 $569 +$52 +9%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet May 16 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $108 +$26 +24%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $119 +$8 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,598 +$166 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $40 +$41 +102%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 06 $42 +$9 +21%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $35 +$7 +21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $33 −$29 -88%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 01 $185 +$336 +182%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $243 +$141 +58%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 01 $76 +$90 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% +$5,175
other 17% −$26
economics 12% +$271
politics 6% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 58m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $54 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $17 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 4¢ $40 2h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 99¢ $2,958 2h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $1,072 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 83¢ $8 3h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $18 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $30 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $100 5h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $20 6h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? BUY No 31¢ $4 11h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 85¢ $3 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $18 11h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.9% -13.0% 56% 44% +85.4%
≤30d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 64% 32% +39.9%
≤90d 35 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 43% +35.9%
all 35 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 43% +35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 43% +35.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 26% +22.9%
15% -16.5% 23% +11.0%
20% -24.7% 20% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,285.98 · official $12,284.58 (match) · 3500 history records