Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BC 0xbc52…fab9 other 75 markets active 1d ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$13
other 12% +$14
politics 11% −$5
sports 2% +$25
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 58 -7.6% -16.4% 19% 14% -9.9%
all 74 -4.5% -13.6% 22% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 14% -9.4%
10% -21.8% 14% -18.1%
15% -29.4% 14% -26.0%
20% -36.3% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage606d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $143 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $143 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $234 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $123 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $124 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $10 +$9 +90%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $11 +$5 +42%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 06 $31 +$21 +70%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 $33 +$31 +96%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 30 $39 +$20 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 33h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 34h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $75 45h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 4d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.74 · official $74.74 (match) · 282 history records