Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc4f…a288 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+19%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 86% +11.1%
≤30d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 86% +11.1%
≤90d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 86% +11.1%
all 7 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 86% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 86% +11.1%
10% +2.6% 57% +0.5%
15% -7.4% 29% -9.2%
20% -16.4% 0% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $43 +$8 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 +$3 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $29 +$10 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $22 +$7 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $18 +$5 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $13 +$5 +38%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 36m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $43 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $39 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $29 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $22 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $18 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $13 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $11 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records