Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BC 0xbc4f…6d05 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+11%) realized +$36 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$19
sports 29% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% +3.6%
≤30d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% +3.6%
all 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 50% +3.6%
10% -10.1% 50% -6.3%
15% -18.8% 33% -15.3%
20% -26.7% 33% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Ireland 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -86%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$15 +135%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +57%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 58¢ $20 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 56¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 60¢ $20 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 61¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 42¢ $11 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 25¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 12¢ $5 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 13h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 64¢ $21 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 87¢ $19 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 68¢ $15 28h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 60¢ $20 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.66 · official $142.86 (match) · 24 history records